Tuesday 22 April 2014

Methanol prices gain weight in India: implications on its downstream derivatives

The bulk prices of Methanol gained weight by 14% in Ahmedabad market and around 9% in the Mumbai market. In this review, Indianpetrochem analyses the factors implicating the Methanol prices in the country. Alongside, the price movement for its downstream derivatives such as Formaldehyde and Acetic Acid are also examined.

This week the Ex-Kandla prices for Methanol gained weight from levels of Rs. 25 per kg to Rs. 28.50 per kg in the Gujarat market, prices are exclusive of all taxes. Traders cite main reason for this price hike to GNFC plant shutdown, which suspended plant operations on account of maintenance work from 15th April, 2014 for a period of 40 days, based on information gathered from various market participants.

Meanwhile in Mumbai market the bulk prices moved from levels of Rs. 24.25 per to current trading range of Rs. 26-27 per kg, exclusive of all taxes. On this account a trader reported, "There has been a shipment delay of Methanol to Mumbai port for a prominent importer. As such, other importers have increased their offer price for Methanol in the domestic market". While this is an important factor impacting the Mumbai market, the plant shutdown of GNFC has also implicated the Mumbai market.

On the other hand, the demand for Methanol is moderate to strong among major Indian market, which suggests that supply dynamics in India are moving the market prices for the chemical.

In similar fashion, Formaldehyde (37%) price Ex-Kandla jumped from levels of  Rs.14 per kg to current range of Rs. 15.50-16 per kg this week, all prices are exclusive of all taxes. The demand for Formaldehyde remains steady in the Indian market given the widespread application of Phenol Formaldehyde resins in the country. As such, the primary driver for Formaldehyde prices is due to the the price rise for its feedstock.

As for Acetic Acid, there are limited imported and domestic goods in the market, as such the supply shortage is pulling up the prices for Acetic Acid in the country. GNFC stocks are limited due to its Methanol plant shutdown and its production of Ethyl Acetate. As for local Acetic Acid manufactures, the price hike for its feedstock would most likely be passed on to its end customers amid current moderate demand conditions.

This rise and fall of Methanol prices due to supply conditions isn't new to the Indian markets, however, it will be interesting to note the levels these prices will stabilize at within the country. Currently, the international  benchmark prices for Methanol are sluggish on account of surge in supply, however, likelihood of a major turnaround can positively impact the prices, ripples of which would be felt in the Indian market as well.

By Arjun Kumar (arjun.kumar@indianpetrochem.com) and Ntasha Berry (ntasha.berry@indianpetro.com)

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